NFL public betting defines the overall betting trends relating to a particular football event. Public betting is usually driven by popularity and the public’s perceived favorite team. Many US bettors and sports betting professionals believe that knowing which way public opinion is leaning helps them make a more informed betting decision.
There are various ways of using NFL public betting information. In this guide, we’ll be focussing on betting against the public. This is also known as fading the public, a contrarian strategy to sports betting. Basically, it involves US bettors wagering against the consensus. It’s been a highly debated topic over the past decade, with people discussing its profitability and success.
Fading the NFL public betting is often one of the only betting strategies amateur US bettors know. This shows how popular and common this strategy is. It’s been sold as the ultimate betting strategy for winning the NFL. Now, it’s important to remember that like other betting strategies, automatically betting against the public isn’t always appropriate. If something is too good to be true, it probably is.
Let’s take a look at NFL public betting and betting against the public.
Best US Sports Betting Sites
We’ve rounded up some of the best sportsbooks where you can practice NFL public betting and betting against the public.
What you’ll find in our NFL betting against the public guide:
- How Betting Against the Public Works
- Public Betting Trends in the NFL: Types of Bettors Explained
- Benefits of Reverse Line Movement in the NFL
- NFL Betting Against the Public Tips
- Cons of Fading the Public in the NFL
When betting against the public, you’re opting to go against public betting trends. Generally, the public tends to bet with their hearts and not their heads, so they’ll more likely bet on the favorite team or home team. It works like this at sportsbooks:
- When bets are being made, oddsmakers adjust their lines to attract more bets in the opposite.
- This indicates to you, the bettor, what the public betting trend is.
- Using the betting against the public strategy, bettors then try to find the right time to place a bet.
Remember, this isn’t a strategy for a guaranteed win.
Knowing about the types of bettors you’ll find in NFL betting will help you understand the NFL betting consensus and NFL public betting trends. There are two types of bettors you’ll find:
- The casual bettor: known as the squares, this type of bettor is either inexperienced or new to betting on the NFL. They tend to bet on the popular teams of the season or their home team, out of loyalty.
- The experienced bettor: referred to as the sharps, these are the experienced bettors who generally post winning bet records. They also tend to bet on the underdog.
So, if you notice a larger number of bettors taking part in a betting event, the larger the amount of squares. Therefore, if you’re looking to make better bets, use past season NFL public betting trends charts to help you see where the bets are.
Are Public Betting Percentages Useful?
Public betting percentages can be useful but learning how to get the best price on a market and beating the closing line is more useful. Furthermore, there are times where the public and sharp bettors agree on a wager. Just because a wager is a public bet, it doesn’t mean it’s a bad bet. Public bettors are just as likely to be right as sharp money picks. However, if you’re experienced in NFL public betting, you’re likely to go for better odds and take the time to research, line shop, and go for high-vigorish markets.
In NFL public betting, especially if you want to get the hang of fading the public, keep an eye on the reverse line and how it’s moving. It’s the easiest to spot during NFL events as betting happens over a week between games. Those bettors who do their research will be able to take advantage of reverse line movements. In these cases, sportsbooks set a favorite and then overwhelming betting trends lead to roles changing.
Bettors who can cash in on the slanted bets before the odds are changed can stand a good chance.
Here is a top tip for fading against the public – listen to logic: the fading the public strategy is incorporated into the handicapping by sportsbooks. Therefore, this doesn’t mean that you’re taking advantage of something that they don’t know about.
Check out our other specific NFL betting guides:
There are some disadvantages to NFL public betting fading:
- A sportsbook might kick you out and/or rescind your winnings. This is because those betting sites with prices based on the standard market are built to recognize fader betting.
- Because sharp bettors make up 60 times the amount of cash recreational bettors place, sportsbooks cater to their needs and restrict any possible fading.
- Constantly betting against the public every time without consideration is a bad move. It’s based on bad math and because sharp bettors control most of the market online.